tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3958681621985348482024-03-12T20:04:28.954-07:00the reluctant geoengineermatt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.comBlogger75125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-52216086060758325922016-12-09T12:38:00.003-08:002016-12-09T12:38:53.734-08:00Rapids<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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I wrote a piece in New Scientist a couple of weeks ago (23rd Nov, 2016 to be
precise). It can be found here:<br />
<br />
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2113880-time-to-stage-trials-of-engineering-the-atmosphere-to-cool-earth/<br />
<br />
It's not behind a paywall, so I think I can reproduce it in its entirety
here (go read New Scientist anyway). In general I'm pretty pleased with it,
although there's one point I'd like to explore: <span style="color: red;">"In
reality, climate change is unlikely to have a single catastrophic point of
failure, and might, to stretch the analogy, be a series of increasingly severe
drops."</span><br />
<br />
Here's the problem with the analogy, and with 'targets' in general. The
waterfall is a binary outcome, increases in temperature are not. 1.6 degrees is
not the same as 3.6. A better analogy here would be a series of rapids (I like
white water canoeing by the way. Go Team 'Stupid Geese'). One might imagine
that the start of the rapids are gentler and, that for the first few seconds we
might be able to paddle upstream and get to the bank. This is actually a better
analogy for greenhouse gas removal, it may return us to safety even after we've
overshot. Every metre we travel into the rapids the further we've got to paddle
back and, importantly, the more severe the outcome. Is this a problem inherent
with targets? Maybe so. Does missing 1.5 mean anything politically. Will it
generate political apathy? or galvanise the political classes. Who knows? I
suspect an aspirational target is, overall, a net positive but without
addressing how we might stay below 1.5 it is fairly meaningless.<br />
I've applied to be a lead author on the IPCC 1.5 degree report. I'd be very
surprised if anyone associated with SRM gets selected, so politically toxic is
the idea. That, unfortunately, is going to have to change...<br />
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_________ <br />
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The Paris climate agreement’s goal of stopping the world warming more than 1.5 °C produced a strong but mixed response from scientists. While most welcomed its intention, and the marker it put down, some, including me, were also alarmed,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28663-paris-climate-deal-is-agreed-but-is-it-really-good-enough/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #179cce; font-family: "PT Serif"; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">wondering how that goal might be achieved</a>. Here’s the truth, made all the more plain by the<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/11/22/donald_trump_does_not_suddenly_care_about_climate_change.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #179cce; font-family: "PT Serif"; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">possible withdrawal of the US from the Paris agreement</a>: if we wish to stay below 1.5 °C we have to deliberately intervene in the global climate system on a massive scale. Nothing of that scope has ever been attempted. The worst implications of a warmer world –<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22630253-300-latest-numbers-show-at-least-5-metres-sea-level-rise-locked-in/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #179cce; font-family: "PT Serif"; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">sea-level rise</a>, crop failure and population displacement – would make it immoral not to act if we can. These potential impacts look much less far-fetched than they did even a decade ago. We are nearing the point at which we must act. Hence the growing call for a full and frank discussion of all<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2851.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #179cce; font-family: "PT Serif"; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">geoengineering methods</a>. These would aim to alter the planet’s radiation budget, for example, by pumping reflective or cloud-altering particles into the air. In particular,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429974-000-geoengineering-the-planet-first-experiments-take-shape/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #179cce; font-family: "PT Serif"; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">field trials of radiation management (RM) methods to cool the Earth now need immediate support</a>.</div>
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Why the urgency? Because we are in a raft without paddles heading towards a waterfall and we’re running out of options. We could paddle for the bank with our hands. That’s like curbing carbon emissions and requires co-operation and leadership. But we’ve left it too late – we’re too near the waterfall to make it to safety this way. We could build makeshift paddles to row quicker. This is like greenhouse gas removal, the development of technologies that suck carbon dioxide out of the air – so-called<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25413-no-option-left-but-to-suck-co2-out-of-air-says-ipcc/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #179cce; font-family: "PT Serif"; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">negative emissions</a>. But it looks doubtful we can make the paddles in time. Or we could brace ourselves for the inevitable, strap ourselves in and those that have them might put on hard hats in the hope they are sufficient. This is adaptation, like bolstering coastal defences or relocating threatened populations and letting the waters rise.Alternatively, we could swim for it. But that’s risky as the water looks cold and not everyone can swim. This is like using radiation management. You can do this quickly and relatively cheaply but the outcome is less certain. This option, given its potential for rapid deployment,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21000-would-be-geoengineers-must-listen-to-the-public/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #179cce; font-family: "PT Serif"; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">has been woefully under-researched.</a></div>
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The waterfall analogy highlights the importance of information. If we knew how long we have before we fall over the waterfall, the severity of the fall, the amount of time it would take to make a paddle and the temperature and depth of the water you could make a more informed decision. More geoengineering research will give us more information. Fortunately, these options are not mutually exclusive. <span style="color: red;">In reality, climate change is unlikely to have a single catastrophic point of failure, and might, to stretch the analogy, be a series of increasingly severe drops. </span>Of course it makes sense to properly explore all options – continue to wean ourselves off carbon, develop negative emissions technologies and brace for the impacts of climate change. But we must also “test the water” in case we decide to swim for it. That means considering properly, through research and a more open and honest discussion, the unpalatable choice of climate engineering through radiation management.</div>
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matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-72766375802360848872016-08-25T05:17:00.001-07:002016-08-26T04:35:03.225-07:00Another reposte<!--[if !mso]>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">I recently (re)read a post by fellow volcanologist
<a href="http://www.wired.com/author/erikvolc/" target="_blank">Erik Klemetti, on WIRED</a> about geoengineering (sulphate aerosol injection),
first posted in 2012 (it resurfaced on twitter this week). </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">http://www.wired.com/2012/07/artificial-volcanoes-arent-the-solution-to-warming/
</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">I should say that I like Erik, and his blog,
a lot (full disclosure, we've never actually met) but felt much of this article
was wrong. Also, as an aside and for some context, we recently had something of
a polite disagreement on the terms of engaging with the media around this article:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3642494/What-happen-Earth-s-1-500-volcanoes-erupted-Experts-outline-terrifying-doomsday-scenario.html </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">Erik's response here:</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">http://www.wired.com/2016/06/right-way-write-volcanic-apocalypse/</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">I was tempted to write something back to this, but
went on holiday instead. Short version: it's worth engaging with media, I made
the article better, there's no simple way to get the article you want - your
only option is simply not to engage. I proved this to myself when dealing with
a different journalist, at the same paper, on a second story a week later (on
Iceland). </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3652254/Is-ash-cloud-disrupt-air-travel-Iceland-s-Gateway-Hell-volcano-explode-moment-says-expert.html</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"> </span> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">In that case, I insisted on more editorial control, thinking most
whilst people would appreciate that every volcano erupting at the same time was simply
a thought experiment, taking about likelhood of eruptions in Iceland was
pretty serious. I got short shrift from the editor. Fortunately, the piece was <i>mostly</i>
sensible (except the headline) and they got volcanologists with much greater
expertise than me to provide quotes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">So it's either engage at your own risk or don't (or
write a hugely popular blog). </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">Anyway, now that's out of the way, let's get onto
the 2012 article. Here it, is - as always my comments in red:</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 0.95pt; padding: 0cm; text-transform: uppercase;">I’VE
SEEN A </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">number of <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode.cfm?id=could-geoengineering-stop-heat-wave-12-07-16" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">articles in the news</span></a> recently touting <span style="color: red;">[subtly implies 'for gain' which is not at all fair, maybe I'm overly sensitive!]</span> the idea that <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/07/17/could-we-block-heat-waves-with-artificial-volcanoes/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">man-made volcanoes could help mitigate</span></a> against heat waves on a
local scale. On the surface, that seems like a great idea … and I know, with
Ohio gripped in what seems like an endless parade of >90ºF degree days this
summer, even the suggestion that there might be a way to cool the region when
the heat hits seems too good to be true. Well, you know how the saying goes,
and sure enough, building an artificial volcano is not going to solve the
ever-increasing problems with a warming planet. </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">How
do you know that, so little research has been done? An unqualified sweeping
statement.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/07/artificial-volcanoes-arent-the-solution-to-warming/eyjafjallajokull_ali_2010107_lrg/"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;"><span style="mso-ignore: vglayout;"></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"><i><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"></span></i></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">Here is the idea – when a <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=50882" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">volcanic eruption occurs</span></a>, thousands <span style="color: red;">[at least]</span></span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">of tonnes of material are thrown into
the atmosphere. This material comes in a number of flavors. A lot of it is
water vapor, usually from water that was dissolved in the magma and is now
being released <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/02/bubbles-fragmentation-and-explosive-eruptions/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">when the bubbles in the magma pop</span></a>, causing an explosive
eruption. Another large component of the material is <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/what-happens-to-all-that-volcanic-ash/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">ash fragments</span></a> – these fragments are volcanic glass,
mineral grains and fragments of pulverized rocks from previous eruptions that
get caught in the action. The water vapor and ash can cause changes in the
atmosphere, especially near the volcano where light can be totally blocked when
the eruption is in full swing and the ash clogs the air. However, when we’re
looking at the impact a volcanic eruption can have on weather and climate, the
components that are <a href="http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/s02aerosols.php" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">most important are the
aerosols</span></a> (when in droplet form) – carbon dioxide (usually
a gas), sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, fluorine, chlorine and more. The
first three are the biggies as they can promote both heating and cooling of the
atmosphere, with CO<sub><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">2</span></sub> mostly driving warming
(via greenhouse) and SO<sub><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">2</span></sub>/H<sub><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">2</span></sub>S driving cooling by dispersing the energy of the
sun before it reaches the surface. </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">[This
is pretty confusing. All of the species listed are gases. Better to talk about
them (as gases) being disolved in water (which dropped off the list?) or, in the case of
sulphates, the solid phase too. This matters as CO<sub><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">2 </span></sub>(gas)
has a warming effect but gases in solution (most notably SO<sub><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">2 </span></sub>of course) are the climate coolers. The emitted gases are precursors to the aerosol]. </span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">The big, sulfur-rich eruptions are the ones that
seem to have the biggest effect on the global climate. You think of eruptions
like <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/06/the-20th-anniversary-of-the-eruption-of-pinatubo-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">Pinatubo (1991)</span></a>, <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/03/looking-back-at-the-1982-eruption-of-el-chichon-in-mexico/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">El Chichon (1982)</span></a>, <a href="http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/education/gases/laki.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">Laki (1783)</span></a>, <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/09/tambora-why-the-volcano-wont-kill-us-all-at-least-not-yet/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">Tambora (1815)</span></a> and more – these really made a <a href="http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/climate_effects.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">mark on global climate</span></a>, usually causing cooling across
hemisphere and potentially causing increased rain or droughts as regional rain
patterns changed. Some, however, did also cause increasing temperature, as the
dry fogs associated with Laki seem to coincident with a very hot summer across
Europe. So, although most of the effect is cooling, it isn’t the only effect. </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">[Warming was also measured in Northern Europe during NH winters after Pinatubo].</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"><a href="http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/%7Ecsi/REF/abstracts/absBernstein_etal.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">Geoengineers</span></a> submitted to <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">Atmospheric Chemistry and
Physics</span> that producing <a href="http://dvice.com/archives/2012/07/artificial-volc.php" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">a small artificial
volcano that spits aerosolized sulfur compounds</span></a> into the
atmosphere, we can <a href="http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2012/07/scientists-plan-to-block-the-sun-using-man-made-clouds/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">decrease the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth</span></a>on a
localized level, thus cooling that area. Sure, in theory, that is exactly what
should happen. A number of problems exist: (1) the cost of the technology to do
this is very high, </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">[no it isn't. In fact, it's frighteningly
cheap. I suspect it's > 1000 x cheaper than mitigation or adaptation. That
gearing could be much higher, and might make geoengineering 'tempting'. The real cost of geoengineering would be around
impacts, the technology itself is very, very cheap. So cheap
individual rogue actors could (in principle, not saying it's particularly likely) deploy the technology] </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">(2) some of the technology doesn’t exist yet </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">[yes it does, we could do this in only a few years (or quicker on a
Manhattan project-like footing)] </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">and
(3) we don’t know what we’re doing </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">[yet
you've just provided a detailed description of what happened after Laki (and we
know far more about the response from Pinatubo). Do we know everything? No. Can
we predict first order effects, for 'peak shaving' (argument is more
complicated, see below), yes].</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"> Sure, #1 and 2 can
be overcome, but #3 is the most troubling – although we might be able to <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">engineer</span> this artificial volcano, we surely
don’t <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">understand</span> the greater effects and long-term
consequences of action like this. </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">This
is why more research is needed, particulary around the next VEI6 eruption.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">This
next section sounds compelling but is a total red herring. It's comparing
uncontrolled release into the lower troposphere with controlled stratospheric
injection. This is exactly the same mistake George Monbiot made when
criticising geoengineering. Did Pinatubo affect the Midwest? Nope. Are people
seriously proposing pumping the amount of material that industry did in the
70's and 80's. Nope. Most researchers are looking at slow ramping up of
injection, starting at as little as 50,000 tonnes a year, to slow down the rate
of warming in a controlled manner (called peak shaving). </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">Let’s still back and think back to the 1970’s and
80’s. What was a big problem across much of the <a href="http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/acidrain.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">Midwest and the eastern
U.S.</span></a>? <a href="http://www.epa.gov/acidrain/what/index.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">Acid rain!</span></a> How is acid rain formed? By pumping a whole
bunch of aerosolized sulfur (and other goodies) into the atmosphere. At that
time, it was not to cool the climate, but rather from the thousands of
factories across middle America. As those factory exhaust fumes spread into the
atmosphere, the jet stream carried the material east, mixed with rain water and <a href="http://www.epa.gov/acidrain/effects/index.html" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">produced acidic rains</span></a>.
This idea of an artificial volcano is really creating the same thing with the
sole purpose of emitting these aerosols. So, you might get a cooler summer, but
downwind they might get a healthy dose of acid rain.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: red; padding: 0cm;">These are
local effects, see<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">n</span> when pumping acids (in hugely high concentrations) into the
lower troposphere (i.e. < 100 m, the height of a chimney, above the surface)<i>. </i>The key points are that the aerosols in the stratosphere (> 20 km in the case of aerosol injection) do not behave this way and that (for the example below) anthropogenic emissions into the troposphere vastly exceed (by a factor of 1000) our hypothetical release. There are lots of reasons to dislike this form of geoengineering. Acid rain
is the least of them. I'm much more worried about <i>how little</i> material is requried to have a climatological signature. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: red; padding: 0cm;">Here's a quick calculation. Let's say we release 0.1 Mt
(100, 000 tonnes) a year into the stratosphere and it distributes globally through
atmospheric circulation. If it then fell out from a homogeneous distribution
(clearly not correct, but for a well-mixed atmosphere not as poor an assumption as you might think) we can simply divide by the area
of the Earth to roughly estimate fallout rates. 100, 000, 000, 000 grams (g) /
510, 000, 000, 000, 000 per square metre. (i.e 0.1 g for about a football pitch sized piece of
the Earth per year). </span></span>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">Secondly, we can look at this a lot like the phenomenon of the <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47907346/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/t/global-air-conditioning-boom-bust-climate/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">global use of air conditioners</span></a>. As more and more people
worldwide take an air conditioned environment as a right, air conditioning
increases without a thought to what the ramifications of all those air
conditioners might be. If you’re one person buying an air conditioner, then it
might not seem to be a big deal (see also: your car), but add up those AC’s,
and the problem gets bigger. Now, picture community after community getting its
own artificial volcano. Who is to stop every town in India or Kansas from
getting one and running it all summer to keep the summer heat down? Now, we’re
no longer talking after micro-volcanoes, but rather likely the equivalent to
several <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">VEI 6+ eruptions</span></a> from a single country (or state) each
year. What is that going to do to the global climate? We don’t know (other
than, you know, bad things). <span style="color: red;">There is a reasonable
point here, under the ridiculous strawman (effects are not local (c/f above discussion and where did several VEI6+ eruptions
from every country (i.e 50 Mt / yr) come from???). Who has control, and how it
is agreed (or not) what the 'desired' climate looks like is an incredible political
challenge. Given we know what the right answer is (reducing carbon use) and
we're not getting far with that, what chance do we have of implementing what is
obviously a sub-optimal solution? (credit to Peter Irvine for that question).</span> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;">Humans
have solved many of their problems throughout history through technology –
we’re good at it. We’re also good at overlooking the long term ramifications of
those technologies – and that is one of the key aspects most ideas like this
overlook: human nature and behavior. <span style="color: red;">This point is
both annoying and patronising. No-one, even the most positive about
geoengineering <b>never, </b><i>I say it again, </i><b>NEVER, </b>considers
these problem without thinking about 'human nature and behaviour' (we'd call it
the socio-political context). In fact, that's all we do. We talk about justice,
we talk about governance, we talk about responsibility. <b> </b></span> </span></div>
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That is how we got ourselves to where we are now. Even geoengineers who <span style="color: red;">[are almost always passionate environmentalists and often distinguised climate scientists]</span> proposed these artificial volcanoes <span style="color: red;">[therefore unsuprisingly]</span> say that the best solution to cooling the
climate is limiting anthropogenic CO<sub><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">2</span></sub> emissions to help
slow the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We all
know that <a href="http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">volcanoes aren’t</span></a> the <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/06/why-volcanism-isnt-the-source-of-increasing-carbon-dioxide-emissions/" target="_blank"><span style="border: none 1.0pt; color: blue; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none;">cause of global warming</span></a>, but we should also be aware that
building our own volcanoes won’t be the solution either – at least not without
ramifications we can’t anticipate, <span style="color: red;">at least some of
which will be social/political. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "inherit" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="color: red;">That is not to say there won't be physical
ramifications (most notably, I believe, around rainfall patterns) but these
must be considered in the context of future climate change. There is a range of
future scenarios where it would be immoral not to intervene. We are therefore
beholden to undertake research, on the understanding of a simple premise. <span style="background: white;">Very few serious researchers are strongly in favour of
deployment. Most, like me, would see it as tragedy; nothing less than a total
abdication of our responsibility of planetary stewardship, were we to actually
get to the point where deployment of global climate-altering technology was
deemed necessary.</span></span><span style="background: white; color: #333333;"> <br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
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<![endif]-->matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-67690870625310557622016-05-24T05:55:00.000-07:002016-05-24T05:55:25.312-07:00Harvard online course on Energy<div class="comment-header" id="bc_0_1M" kind="m">
<cite class="user"> </cite></div>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">I was contacted recently by Colin Fredericks, as per below. Here are my
thoughts. My expectations (it will be well thought out) were communicated in a
reply to the original comment:</span>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/profile/10619406247731209530"><span style="color: blue;">Colin Fredericks</span></a></span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="http://thereluctantgeoengineer.blogspot.com/2016/05/been-away-while.html?showComment=1463423978979#c3632373921287158739"><span style="color: blue;">16 May 2016 at 11:39</span></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Greetings!<br />
<br />
I'm working with David Keith at Harvard to help him create an online course
about energy and the environment. It doesn't concentrate on his geoengineering
work, but I thought that perhaps your blog readers might be interested in
knowing that the course exists. We'd love if you posted a link to this course
on your blog.<br />
<br />
Here's a link to the course info page. Let me know if you have any questions
about it. <br />
<br />
https://www.edx.org/course/energy-within-environmental-constraints-harvardx-engsci137x</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">----- </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The syllabus
looks interesting, and, importantly, comprehensive. It includes a review of fossil
fuel use (and impact), renewables, with a strong focus on solar and nuclear
power. The course will put energy usage in the context of economics and the
politics of climate change. Knowing David, it’ll be a high quality, well taught
and stimulating course. If I were signing up for it I’d also ask the following
questions:</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There seems to be a focus on
electricity. Hydraulic fracturing has revolutionised the energy sector in the
US, is that covered at all?</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The UK government developed an energy
mix calculator (the brainchild of the late David Mackay). Will we use something
similar (given the course aims) here?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/#/home</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(3)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">How much contact will there be with
David himself (he’s really busy)</span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
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matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-25949803154171802992016-05-19T06:21:00.001-07:002016-05-19T06:21:29.418-07:00Self defence.I read an interesting article today. It's here:<br />
<br />
http://dcgeoconsortium.org/2016/05/18/who-may-geoengineer-self-defense-civil-disobedience-and-revolution-part-one/<br />
<br />
and is written by:<br />
<br />
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<img alt="Patrick Taylor Smith 150" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2904" height="150" src="http://dcgeoconsortium.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Patrick-Taylor-Smith-150.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: inline; float: left; height: auto; margin: 0px 10px 2px 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" width="150" /><strong style="font-weight: bold;">Patrick Taylor Smith, PhD</strong>, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore. He is writing a book titled “A Leap Into Darkness: Domination and the Normative Structure of International Politics,” and researches climate change and climate engineering. His papers can be found<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://nus.academia.edu/PatrickTaylorSmith" style="color: #325267; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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I read it, disagreed with some of it, and thought it would be an interesting exercise to unpick it. I've been careful to avoid ad hominem attacks and, I hope, focussed on the ideas. My comments are in <span style="color: red;">red.... </span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">__________________________________________________________________________________________ </span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Much of the discussion about the appropriateness or usefulness of
geoengineering—particularly dangerous and risky geoengineering strategies </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[strong bias
demonstrated already] </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">like </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_sulfate_aerosols_%28geoengineering%29" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">sulfate
aerosol injection</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">—has relied upon a shared assumption about <i>who</i> will
end up deploying these new tools. That is, we’ve (mostly) assumed that fairly
wealthy, high-emitting states, private actors based in those countries, or
international institutions dominated by those states will be the ones to
finally inject sulfates or fertilize the ocean. This is entirely reasonable </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[agreed]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">. Rich and high
emitting states have the resources (or contain private agents with the
resources) to engage in geoengineering research and, potentially, deployment.
Powerful states will have the political wherewithal to either ignore the
entreaties of global governance institutions and civil society, or to gain
their assent. From a practical perspective, the rich and powerful states are
those that are likely to fund the research that would be needed should risky </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[keeps saying risky,
we'll come back to that]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering strategies ever be deployed, and perhaps even if they
are not.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Yet, there is something odd, from a normative perspective, about this
emphasis. After all, geoengineering is presented as a solution to a problem
that has been—to a great extent—created by rich and powerful, high emitting
nations. There is something unsavory—or as Stephen Gardiner has put it, </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="http://ndpr.nd.edu/news/24759-a-perfect-moral-storm-the-ethical-tragedy-of-climate-change/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">morally
corrupting</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">—about the idea that rich countries would geoengineer in order to allow
them to retain a greater proportion of the benefits they’ve accrued from
emitting in the first place </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[there is a lack of any discussion of alternative
outcomes in this discussion - inaction is also an ethical choice and there are
scenarios where not acting would be morally bankrupt - the issue here is a
tacit rejection of the severity of climate change]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">. Of course, one can
try to justify risky </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[again]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering as a
way of reducing the negative impacts of climate change on the poor,
marginalized, and low-emitting. But again, this is an odd argument for those <i>responsible</i> for
those impacts to make: “I’ve caused a terrible threat to hang over your head
and I’ll remove it through a strategy that is risky </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[again]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> for you but more
convenient for me.” So, the idea that rich countries could justify risky </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[again, and this is the
serious one of course, as it strongly implies a less risky strategy is
available to us]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> climate strategies by appealing to the protection of the people their
policies endanger is problematic. </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[It is also true that those who want to
continue to burn fossil fuels use a similar, much more repugnant version of
this argument, citing the need for fossil fuels for development and therefore
conventional mitigation harms the Global South].</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<i><span style="color: #514f4f; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">What can we say if this nation decides to engage in an act of
self-defense, protecting its territorial integrity and political autonomy from
the actions of more powerful nations?</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">This kind of worry doesn’t apply if those victims themselves decide to
geoengineer. They are simply defending themselves, or so the thought goes.
Let’s consider a scenario (borrowed liberally from Oliver Morton in </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Planet-Remade-Geoengineering-Could-Change-ebook/dp/B011PWUT8Y" target="_blank"><i><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">The
Planet Remade</span></i></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">); imagine a fairly wealthy but low emitting island
nation that will suffer catastrophic flooding. Adaptation measures are either
unavailable or prohibitively expensive. So, what can we say if this nation—that
is not responsible for climate change but nonetheless suffering from its ill
effects—decides to engage in an act of self-defense, protecting its territorial
integrity and political autonomy from the actions of more powerful nations?
Consider an analogous case. Suppose that a nation builds a dam which it knows
will destroy all of the arable land of a neighboring country. It seems pretty
clear that the the flooded state can—assuming that it met all of the conditions
of just war—engage in a military action to destroy the dam. In other words,
risky </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[again!]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering could
very well be a response to a set of bad consequences that—under different
circumstances—would justify going to war. And if something as potentially risky
and dangerous as military action could be justified, then it seems hard to deny
that similarly risky </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[again]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering could
be as well. </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[This
is a very odd analogy that really requires some thought. The beauty of Oliver's
book is that its analogies are so sharp. Firstly, the 'flooded country' must be
upstream of the dam? Secondly, destruction of the dam has consequences
(confusingly, flooding) that military action against geoengineering would not -
any comparison with the termination effect is moot due to the time necessary to
build up the risk, surely. I think this presupposes the naive, and roundly
rejected, idea of a 'Pinatubo-like release'. This is an accidental straw man
argument]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">There is something appealing about this scenario. The weak and powerless
get to take matters into their own hands and defend themselves from the
predations and exploitation of the rich and powerful. Setting aside any
contingent issues about proportionality, effectiveness, or necessity, I want to
suggest that there nonetheless some problems with thinking about geoengineering
this way. Consider <strike>two</strike> <span style="color: red;">four or five</span> different scenarios.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-left: 26.25pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Accident</span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">: I am attacked by a ninja assassin. I
defend myself by firing a gun at the assassin, but I miss and the bullet goes
through the wall, striking an innocent bystander.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-left: 26.25pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Redirection</span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">: I see that a ninja assassin is about
to attack me, but I change the number on my apartment so that the assassin
attacks my innocent neighbor. </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-left: 26.25pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b><u><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Massacre:</span></u></b><b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span></b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">I worry, legitimately, about collateral
damage so I hide, hoping someone has called the police. The assassin kills me
and is seen doing so by my neighbour. The assassin then kills my
neighbour. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Also, not matter how one feels, for completeness the following scenario
should be added:</span></span></div>
<span style="color: red;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt; margin-left: 15.75pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">4. </span><b><u><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Murder</span></u></b><b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">:</span></b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> I shoot the ninja,
missing both bystander and neighbour. I've called this murder deliberately, as<b>
it must be </b>that there are consequences in any scenario, even were
geoengineering to be deemed <i>"successful".</i></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Finally, this outcome has been explicitly ruled out:</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> 5. </span><b><u><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Change of heart</span></u></b><b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">:</span></b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> The ninja changes
their mind, and everyone renounces violence.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Unfortunately,
I think that's probably correct.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">While fully working out the difference between the two examples would
take a lot more argument than a single blog post, it seems pretty clear to me
that <b>Accident</b> is much more easily justified or defended than <b>Redirection</b>.
And this is not merely due to risk; after all, I know that firing a gun in an
apartment complex is a dangerous thing to do and that changing my address might
not actually work. The difference, or so it seems to me, is how I <i>use</i> the
death of the innocent bystander. In one case (<b>Redirection</b>), the death
is—in some sense—a <i>necessary</i> part of defending myself and in the
other (<b>Accident</b>) it seems like a merely contingent feature of the case.
In <b>Redirect</b>, I seem to be allying myself with the ninja assassin in
order to kill my neighbor. That does not seem to be true in <b>Accident</b>.
The conclusion we can draw is that even when there is an uncontroversial and
obvious case of self-defense, you are not allowed to do <i>just anything</i> in
order to save yourself.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">And
there, I think is the flaw in the logic, both in this thought experiment and
the piece throughout. Not firing the gun comes with inherent risk, not just to
those responsible, but also to those who are not. Geoengineering is only ever
defined as <b>risky </b>in a context where the risks from inaction are ignored.
Intervention is risky, by definition, but the trolley experiments (I agree
which are a very useful too in thinking this way) do capture the risk of
inaction. The above does not.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Potentially dangerous </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[ok, they are now<i> potentially </i>dangerous,
which is better]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering activities—like iron fertilization or sulfate aerosol
injections—will <span style="color: red;">[might]</span> inflict harm on others in the course of saving our island
nation. And these people will be disproportionately those who are also
suffering and suffering innocently from climate change </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[it is absolutely true that the least responsible are the most at risk, from both geoengineering and climate change, this doesn't make, <i>ipso facto, </i>geoengineering risky]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> (note, if you
redirected the ninja assassin to kill <i>another</i> ninja assassin
that is coming to kill you, that might be okay, but that isn’t the case here).
So, is dangerous </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[again]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering more
like Accident or Redirection? I leave it to the reader to make their own
judgment, but I want to point out two things. First, it is interesting that the
potential permissibility of dangerous geoengineering might ride on a fairly
subtle distinction in moral philosophy; </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">trolley problems</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> are not so impractical
or useless. Second, I think there is a strong case to be made that dangerous </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[one more]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering is a
redirection (see my commentary in <i>Ethics, Policy, and the
Environment </i>for a somewhat longer case)<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21550085.2014.926073?journalCode=cepe21" title=""><sup><span style="color: #325267; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">1</span></sup></a>. The key feature of sulfate injections—for example—is
the very mechanisms that make it is so effective as a potential shield also
create the negative impacts. The bullet hitting the bystander in Accident plays
no role in making the gun a useless tool for defending myself, but the very
cooling effects that make SRM useful are also what make it dangerous; they seem
very closely linked</span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">.
[It is hard to imagine SRM not having deleterious effects. However, this is
same trap <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/sep/02/giant-balloon-and-hosepipe-geoengineering">George
Monbiot fell into</a>. Risks from SRM must be placed in a context of the effect
of climate change. George compares an incorrect analogy for SRM (A) with the
current climate (in this case the Sahel, B). A leads to B, which is bad. He really should
have looked at post-Pinatubo Sahelian rainfall (C) against a 50 year scenario
(D). The answer is not as clear cut]. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Of course, I could be wrong about that. But the fact that dangerous </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">[last one]</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> geoengineering looks
like a redirection of a threat against an innocent population would, if true,
seriously undermine any claim that it can be used in self-defense.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">I
believe that the risks around geoengineering should only be discussed in the
context of realistic counterfactuals. If you walked into a doctor's
surgery and said 'I've got a cold' and the doctor prescribed cutting your arm
off at the elbow with a pen knife without anaesthetic, you'd probably question
that judgement. If you’re <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aron_Ralston">dying,
pinned under a rock in a slot canyon in Utah</a>, slowly dying, cutting your
arm of might be the best solution. The problem I have with this piece is just
this, the planet has more than just a head cold. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 13.65pt; margin-bottom: 18.75pt;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">I
do not believe it has been adequately demonstrated SRM is <b>more</b> risky and
dangerous than, for example, RCP8.5. In fact, I suspect that is indefensible at
the current time. If anyone proves otherwise, that would be a major blow to the
legitimacy of SRM geoengineering with stratospheric aerosols as an idea.
Threats of military action, for example, around geoengineering are equally valid
under RCP8.5, aren't they? </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
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matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-41009861101942345562016-05-02T08:24:00.002-07:002016-05-19T06:55:11.557-07:00Been away a whileWell, it's been quite a while since I've posted on here. I'm going to write more regularly and, thanks to some encouragement from others, continue to research Climate Engineering. My first foray was pretty tough, incredibly fascinating and terrifying in equal measure and I think I had, for want of a better word, a bit of a hangover after the end of the SPICE project. I should add that I made some great friends during the project, learnt a lot and that I am incredibly proud of the work we did and the decision we made. I'm going to try to write weekly, when I can. matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-22003221139984522222014-08-01T04:39:00.001-07:002014-08-01T04:39:13.796-07:00Day 4Day 4 contained the beginnings of the students towards developing (and presenting) their own research and ideas. The different 'controversies' now have groups of students thinking about them and developing ideas. These will be finessed over time into short, exciting research proposals. The participants of the school also had an opportunity to present research findings in parallel sessions at the end of the day. The talks were stimulating, well presented and produced some interesting early results. Most notable for me was a study on drought in China and the influence of pre-existing pollution on MCB efforts. <br />
<br />
I think I have got to the bottom of the issue around detection that has been kicking around the school. The idea goes like this - the climate system is noisy and slow ramps would not, for at least a decade, show any response that is outside of natural variation. The counter argument (I assumed) was to consider paleoclimates, data assimilation etc to reduce the detection lag. It turns out that the real counter argument is that it doesn't matter than you can't attribute, especially given any response is within the noise. I think this is really interesting and points to issues I have with both stances. The first relies too much on models and overhypes risk, the second (I think) shows an absence of consideration of realpolitik. It may not matter scientifically that attribution is impossible, I suspect it matters politically. I need some more time to unpick this, but that's as good a summary as I can distil at the moment.matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-92095901992761935102014-07-30T10:56:00.000-07:002014-07-30T10:56:01.086-07:00Day 3Well, day 3, where do we start? Alan Robock and I were up to bat to talk about outdoor experiments - I am not sure our remit was better fleshed out than that. Controversy was desirable but never really likely given our relative positions - there are things we don't agree on for sure but at our core, for different reasons maybe, are similar values. Actually, I suspect that is true of most of the school now I think about it. <br />
<br />
Anyway, the general consensus was that Alan focused a bit too much on model uncertainty and I focused too much on governance. Others wanted to explore likely experiments (I did approach one) and think about governance once the experiments were detailed. I think that makes sense but it does fill me with unease just to present potential outdoor experiments without some discussion of both environmental and social impact. <br />
<br />
One really interesting question posed to me was 'imagine if you had an identical world to manipulate, what experiments would you conduct?'. I was surprised, alarmed and, actually, subsequently relieved that I struggled to answer. The question itself is not hard, 'what do you want to know from experiments?' and I eventually answered, but the construct of the question threw me. Initially I think I felt a little ashamed for not being nimble enough mentally to circumvent the absurdity at the framing but, on reflection, I think it's a function of my change of mindset and one I am comfortable with. The truth is, you cannot decouple impacts on the planet and its people from climate perturbation and, I believe, nor should you. In the end I had to construct a slightly altered framework where the system could be reset without harm (some form of time travel I suppose) where no lasting impacts were felt. The answer I gave is, I think, correct - it is impacts on things you value (water, crops, biodiversity) that need to be at the centre of any investigative effort that would cause a climatological response. <br />
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Alan and then David Keith then presented on GeoMIP5 and the hypothetical experimental suite (solicited from a meeting in Harvard) respectively. <br />
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On the walk home I wondered about an extension to the trolley problem which I think was derived directly from my unease this morning. What if the current position of the points was somehow your fault (i.e. you had set, or had instructed to be set, the points incorrectly)? Would that make one more likely to intervene in the system, switch the points and reduce, but not eliminate the death toll? (the trolley experiment is described <a href="http://people.howstuffworks.com/trolley-problem.htm" target="_blank">here</a> if you've no idea what I am talking about).<br />
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matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-66173762422843275132014-07-29T13:58:00.000-07:002014-07-29T13:58:17.539-07:00Day 2Back on track with my second post. Today (really today) was a new format. There were two sets of 'adversarial' discussions - David Keith and Ulrich Platt on SRM efficacy and Ted Parsons and Alexander Proelss on Governance. Both were illuminating, neither were particularly adversarial. Alexander did have to argue somewhat out of his comfort zone (a principle I am now familiar with) and I think did a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fighting_Talk#Defend_the_Indefensible" target="_blank">very good job</a>. <a href="https://vimeo.com/100653725" target="_blank">Better than me</a>, anyway. In one comedy moment David and Uli tried to engender some difference by blindly answering the question 'what proportion of a 10M budget would you spend on investigating new particles?'...both said 10%.<br />
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I found the afternoon session an little useful and a lot less structured. I am not sure what the expected outcomes were, but it appeared a bit scattergun. I like light-touch moderation and Timo provided some excellent, stimulating ideas. Maybe the idea of preparing a research proposal <em>is </em>a bit ambitious given the age of the participants. Echoes of the sandpit process were obvious to me, probably not to anyone else. I suspect from that meeting any proposals would be in the Mentors' graven image, and not by their design either. The use of the word mentor troubles me now, as then, given the stated objectives. I am also not convinced labelling and separating (even by choice) the physical scientists and social scientists is a great idea either. It seems counter to the painful lessons learned over the course of SPICE. matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-27640056213688932802014-07-29T13:06:00.000-07:002014-07-29T13:06:09.951-07:00Day 1I feel quite privileged, and a little worried, about being asked to mentor at the 5th Geoengineering Summer School in Heidelberg. It's nice to see some old friends and some fresh new minds (I hope that geoengineering doesn't feel completely normal to the newbies and that I do not in any way normalise it). I am going to write a short post on each day (yes, I am already a day late, thanks for the prompt Anthony Jones), starting with Monday 28th July.<br />
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'Today' was a day of introductions, both in terms of people and basic knowledge. The first session was a round-the-room introduction where we were obliged to stand up and introduce ourselves when our photos appeared on screen. I thought it would be great to introduce some humour and settled on 'Hi, my name is Matt Watson and I am an alcoholic', intended as a statement that (a) I found the whole thing a little uncomfortable, (b) a wry nod that some 'geoengineers' keep themselves in the closet somewhat (or at least it is not a particularly fun thing to admit) and (c) an admission that I have found being the SPICE PI a stressful experience. Not <strong>completely </strong>convinced it was the right thing to do. It was great to see people from other than Europe and the US, with several representatives from Africa. <br />
<br />
I found one talk, by David Morrow, particularly interesting. I cannot really quote him as we agreed Chatham House Rules but his talk was very engaging and provided a new philosophical viewpoint of people considering geoengineering, particularly around researchers opinions of the anthropocene and our relationship with nature. In general I am not sure that Chatham House Rules really help here, I agree it does allow for a certain anonymity but I suspect most folks would be happy being attributed, I know I would. It also engenders an air of secrecy which is neither appropriate nor really necessary. I worry it is becoming an habit at meetings like this.<br />
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In other news, Pat Mooney <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cT25vMpWux0" target="_blank">feels the heat</a> from chemtrailers for being funded by the Ford Foundation and the CIA (not <strong>completely </strong>sure if this is true, but it will be interesting to see how ETC group respond) and calling chemtrails an urban myth. Good to see it coming back around...matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-57148119983847213192014-01-31T01:23:00.001-08:002014-01-31T01:23:12.713-08:00A new framingI am at a very interesting meeting (EuTRACE partner meeting - www.eutrace.org) and we are discussing framing. I novel (I think) idea hit me. There are several framings, none of which are ideal. As a general discussion 'CE' is challenging because there are many different techniques that work on varying spatio-temporal scales, with variable costs, impacts and social responses. Is afforestation really appropriate to be lumped in with CE and do they have, for example, the same time moral issues. CDR/SRM is also challenging, for similar reasons (although better if you recategorize ocean fertilization separately) or, as per EuTRACE use three exemplars (I think we've decided on BECCS, SAI and OF). A 'per technique' framing is better, but as the number of techniques and technological imaginaries expands, this becomes a real challenge. My idea is to regroup the techniques by where they act - i.e. land-based, ocean-based and atmospheric. I think this makes for an interesting new framing which I hope to explore over the next few days. It would put roof-whitening with afforestation and biochar, which, instinctively, makes some sense (in terms of scale of impact, level of personal responsibility, justice and governance). I think I need to think about this a bit, but, as always, I am using the blog as brain dump/aide memoir.<br />
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<br />matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-51378040936771534342014-01-25T16:14:00.002-08:002014-01-25T16:14:53.423-08:00QuickieOK - two brief things (it's exam week).<br />
<br />
1). Two counter points to Al Gore's 'you're all bonkers and should be ashamed of yourself' bullshit...<br />
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Mine (actually a response to earlier comments) -<br />
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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/oct/08/climate-engineering-geoengineering-climate-change<br />
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Josh Hortons -<br />
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http://geoengineeringpolitics.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/ipcc-acknowledges-likely-need-for-cdr.html<br />
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2) I got challenged (indirectly) into trying to get my feelings on stratospheric SRM into one tweet (hashtag, actually). It was in response to me appearing (accidentally) on the comedy blog 'the bugle'<br />
http://thebuglepodcast.com/ A student had tweeted the link with the hashtag #SayNoToReflectiveParticles (listen to the blog for details - number 256 about 16 mins in).<br />
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I wrote this. On reflection I think it's OK.... <br />
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#<strong style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #777777; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333015441895px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">SayNoToReflectiveParticlesUnlessItIsClearThatInactionWillDoMoreHarm</strong><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #777777; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333015441895px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">.</span><br />
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #777777; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333015441895px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: center; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"> </span><br />it's not trending...<br />
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<br />matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-54415753447770218152013-12-10T13:45:00.004-08:002013-12-10T13:45:48.145-08:00"Geoengineering's" profile rising (rapidly)I note with a mixture of admiration, alarm and jealousy that David Keith got to speak on The Colbert Report last night. Google it, if you don't believe me. I'm not sure how it went to be honest. David's a smart guy but I suspect that this was a calculated risk and I don't know if it paid off - I can't currently bear to watch it, I'll check it out at some point. Back in academia climate engineering appears to be heading for the mainstream with several talks at AGU2013 speaking directly to the issue. I think this is a good thing, but I'm not completely sure. It's odd that the breaking of taboo fills me with some form of dread - academics can, <i>on occasion</i>, be very inward looking. <br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: black; display: inline ! important; float: none; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">GC11C-1014. A Multi-Model Examination of Climate Extremes in an Idealized Geoengineering Experiment</span><br style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Charles Curry;<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Jana Sillmann; David Bronaugh</i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; display: inline ! important; float: none; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">GC11D-1025. Solar Geoengineering: Questioning the “Winners and Losers” Paradigm<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">(Invited)</i><br style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Kate Ricke</i></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; display: inline ! important; float: none; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">GC21F-05. New Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)</span><br style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Alan Robock; Ben Kravitz</i> </i> </i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: black; display: inline ! important; float: none; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">GC33A-1089. Impacts on Chinese Agriculture of Geoengineering and Smoke from Fires Ignited by Nuclear War</span><br style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Lili Xia; Alan Robock</i></span></span><br />
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<i style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: #ffe8b2; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11px; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: black; display: inline ! important; float: none; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">GC33C-1131. Microbially mediated carbon mineralization: Geoengineering a carbon-neutral mine<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><br style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><i style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Ian M. Power; Jenine McCutcheon; Anna L. Harrison; Siobhan A. Wilson; Gregory M. Dipple; Gordon Southam</i></span></span> </i><br />
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In general I am not having that great a time at the moment; I've been overcome with melancholy. I suspect Christmas will do me good and provide me with a chance to relax and recover from what has been a pretty intense term. matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-40636015653384026702013-11-06T21:18:00.001-08:002013-11-06T21:18:06.371-08:00Tonight...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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More details here: <a href="http://www.theoldmarket.com/ai1ec_event/engineering-the-climate/?instance_id=">http://www.theoldmarket.com/ai1ec_event/engineering-the-climate/?instance_id=</a> </div>
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matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-15665358313833236442013-10-21T14:30:00.001-07:002013-10-22T03:12:47.556-07:00Last, for now, in a series of media work on CEI've not listened to the audio yet, but the transcript is how I remember the discussion going. Unlike the Indy article, I think I was able to capture some of the nuances about research and deployment.<br />
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http://www.npr.org/2013/10/20/238548240/turning-to-scientists-to-engineer-a-cooler-climate<br />
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The comments below the article (I know, I probably shouldn't read them) imply people still don't quite get that. I confess that I worry the research-deployment differentiation is at best difficult to convey and at worst an unrealistic personal construct - some sort of intellectual comfort blanket, or rose-coloured glasses, that allows me to rationalise my desire to research. matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-39180101644831902692013-10-20T10:04:00.004-07:002013-10-20T13:26:45.920-07:00Independent on Sunday articleNew article on CE/GE in the Independent on Sunday today. Framing is OK (except for playing God/ saving/destroying planet stuff) although my comments wholly negative on GE/CE which don't really capture the nuances of my position. It is hard to distinguish research from deployment, and there is no clear blue water either, but I think I was pretty clear on the need for research during discussions with Memphis (the author). It was quite an interesting interview, one of a number I've done in the last week or two. It irkes me slightly that, having battled to develop a clear personal framing, newspapers produce the most sensationalist of headlines sometimes. I guess that's the nature of the beast...<br />
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http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/lets-play-god-the-scientific-experiments-that-might-save-the-world-or-destroy-it-8884386.htmlmatt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-29467745109017652422013-10-14T09:13:00.000-07:002013-10-14T09:51:14.453-07:00Article in the Sun online<span style="font-family: inherit;">Is here: <a href="http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/5201259/best-ways-to-tackle-climate-change.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/<wbr></wbr>homepage/features/5201259/<wbr></wbr>best-ways-to-tackle-climate-<wbr></wbr>change.html</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I can't quote the piece in its entirety (and apologies it is behind the Sun's paywall) but, before anyone worries about the title (and selling the idea of geoengineering), here's what I wrote in summary...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">"</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Using solar radiation management would be very difficult politically. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Which country should control the technology, or decide where the aerosols should be released? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Which country gets to decide how cold it is, and what happens if there are unintended consequences? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If weather patterns are changed, there could be severe fallout for countries which are suddenly getting a lot more rain than usual - or, more likely, a lot less. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">None of these techniques are perfect and none should be considered a silver bullet. None have been tested on a large enough scale to be certain they would work. They should be considered no better than an insurance policy. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">They might help out if your house catches fire, but it would be better to stop it catching fire in the first place. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course, there is a better option. Stop pumping as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Almost all climate scientists believe that we have very little time to make this change before we will have to either adapt to climate change or engineer a solution.</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> "</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I also talked about CDR in very general terms, and the editor did a bit of scene setting. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">It was difficult to write and the editor and I went back and forth on the wording <b style="color: black;">a lot</b> but I hope it was worth it. My aim was to open up the debate and be as frank as possible without, in any way, advocating any other choice than conventional mitigation. I guess some (including Jack Stilgoe) would legitimately ask if this was normalisation. I hope not... </span></div>
matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-70994966442090103622013-10-09T14:08:00.000-07:002013-10-09T14:08:10.626-07:00Guardian pieceSo, the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/oct/08/climate-engineering-geoengineering-climate-change" target="_blank">Guardian piece</a> was (I think) relatively well received. I've had extremely nice emails from colleagues, mostly around the idea that it was pleasing to see something thoughtful and balanced about climate engineering, which is nice. Some of the comments on the article were a bit odd, some were critical but one stood out - they made the observation that the term 'climate engineering' was disingenuous. What they actually wrote was:<br />
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'Nice switch from "geoengineering" to "climate engineering". Makes it sound much more soft and cuddly.'<br />
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I'd probably not have paid too much attention to that but for the fact that (independent of the Guardian piece) my good friend Duncan McLaren (Friends of the Earth & Lancaster University) had made the same point at a meeting yesterday. Now, when Duncan speaks, I listen. He's a pretty serious thinker on this stuff and, whilst we don't always agree, his observations certainly affect me. He pointed out that there was some evidence 'climate engineering' was a term people were more comfortable with (he did not see that as a positive, neither do I). I chose to use climate engineering as I think it most accurately reflects the thing it is trying to describe. Geoengineering, to many, is building dams and culverts. Climate engineering is exactly what it says it is - the engineering of a large scale climate (natural) system. I need to ask Duncan where the evidence for his assertion is - I'm quite sure he has some. My feeling would be that the juxtaposition of something natural like 'climate' and the clearly anthropocentric term like 'engineering' (read mastery is some circumstances) is striking. Maybe I'm wrong on this one. Time will tell.<br />
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<br />matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-15551817020965306522013-09-27T14:47:00.001-07:002013-09-27T15:06:06.855-07:00You can't have it both ways?So, in case you've been under a rock all week the IPCC have released their fifth report. For the first time, the summary included a paragraph on climate engineering. Josh Horton at geoengineeringpolitics provides (as always) a decent and balanced piece with context <a href="http://geoengineeringpolitics.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/ipcc-wgi-gives-impartial-consideration.html" target="_blank">here</a>. I agree with Josh that the paragraph is neither supportive nor overly dismissive. The paragraph's inclusion has prompted a strong negative response from those worried about legitimising 'geoengineering' (really SRM and ocean fertilization) including predictable statements from both Clive Hamilton and etc group. They are pretty consistent with their opposition to SRM, and they have a right to be. Interestingly, Jack Stilgoe has waded into this space with <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2013/sep/27/science-policy1" target="_blank">a piece in the Guardian</a>. That, in of itself is not particularly unusual - Jack is a salient commentator who has been working with (sometimes on) SPICE and with others thinking about climate engineering for some time. However, his position highlights a clear tension within the social scientist fraternity. Jack, and others, have spent the last years insisting that we engage with publics and broaden the debate. I think he's right. So, then, how is the inclusion of climate engineering (especially so heavily caveated) not addressing that aim? Surely the IPCC should be talking about climate engineering? I'm minded to agree that their cursory discussion in the SPM (Summary for Policy Makers, in case like me you had to look it up) is not useful or really appropriate BUT I also think that there is a danger here that social scientists aren't practising what they preach. Suddenly, discussion is promoting legitimacy. How to engage then? Surely not by leading the public to their world view? That's clearly profoundly unethical. I'm afraid that, if it is to be discussed openly, then bodies like the IPCC will (and should) be charged with presenting it.<br />
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To put it another way, how do you discuss something this controversial with stakeholders (i.e. everyone) without bias. My personal framing (thanks in part to Phil MacNaughten and Jack for encouraging me to think this way) is agnosticism (see various different previous posts). This is not a rhetorical trick - as a scientist and in the absence of evidence I must be agnostic. It is not, however, the complete picture. My instincts are to be alarmed by large-scale intervention because of unintended consequences, attribution and selfishness (and/or greed). But, you cannot have it both ways, right? If the public are engaged and informed and, fairly and without leading, come to the conclusion that climate engineering is a legitimate course of action <b>to consider</b>, then I'm afraid that is an outcome that those opposed to climate engineering have to accept. It appears to me that Jack's piece counters his position that rational debate is the most desirable outcome. In a quickly released statement, etc group have condemned the inclusion and got to the nub of the debate with this sentence....'<i>The actual sentences about geoengineering in the IPCC report matter less than the fact that they are there at all.</i>' I'm sorry, but that is also the problem I have with both Jack's piece (whom I almost always agree with) and etc's stance. If the IPCC had been really scathing of climate engineering neither would, I suspect, have complained. Therefore <b>it is</b> the content of the paragraph that has perturbed them. A careful look at the paragraph suggests it is neither encouraging nor positive, rather simply capturing a (slightly outdated) conventional wisdom. I don't think you can object to discussion around climate engineering unless you are vehemently opposed to all research and deployment as an ideology. In that sense, etc group are entirely consistent. I'm not sure Jack, in this instance, can say the same. I feel similarly confused about Clive Hamilton's stance - his two most recent books 'Requiem for a Species' and 'Earthmasters' feel similarly juxtaposed. matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-80332498102801673362013-07-08T05:06:00.001-07:002013-07-08T05:10:04.838-07:00screams from no-mans-landThis will probably be a fairly short post as, unlike most entries, I don't really have a specific point to make. The title is me musing on the polemic that surrounds climate engineering, and the fact that it is amplifying all the time. The headline is, of course, a note to Michael Mann's book, titled 'The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Line'. I can honestly say I am not surprised by the lengths some will go to to discredit scientists, the following being one of a number of extreme examples from a distant scientific field.<br />
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<a href="http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/ehs/news/2013/atrazine">http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/ehs/news/2013/atrazine</a><br />
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Without trying to belittle those who have been on a real front line (OK, I admit the choice of analogy does make me squirm a bit Prof. Mann), I suspect this is how it feels to be vilified by one end of the spectrum in the AGW 'debate'. That got me thinking about climate engineering and those who research it. The point about the 'trenches' argument is that it is conventional, two adversarial groups squaring off (maybe the house of commons is a better analogy). Michael Mann no doubt has his compadres and must (I hope) take solace in their support. Climate engineering researchers however, you could argue, have it even worse. We are stuck, screaming, in no-mans-land (to push the analogy to breaking point) and taking fire from both sides. In fact, those with whom we typically identify are often more hostile that those with whom we normally vehemently disagree. <br />
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So, what now? Crawl back to the trenches and hope never to visit no-mans-land again, or stay there and face the flak.matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-83988346370265418692013-06-20T12:47:00.002-07:002013-06-20T12:47:35.654-07:00Climate fatalism discussionFun discussion on Huffington Post Live channel yesterday, with three interesting and quite different climate activists. http://t.co/2bDiLBwyiC<br />
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Comments below amusing/flattering...!matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-51765825057487729932013-06-10T09:03:00.000-07:002013-06-10T09:03:02.062-07:00Yet another profoundly depressing report form the IEAWords fail me - just read it...<br />
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<a href="http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2013/energyclimatemap/RedrawingEnergyClimateMap.pdf">http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2013/energyclimatemap/RedrawingEnergyClimateMap.pdf</a>matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-30737053336346142952013-06-07T14:07:00.000-07:002013-06-07T14:07:16.348-07:00Another polemic from the deep greens...<div style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21px; padding: 10px 0px;">
Worryingly inaccurate article from ecowatch. Problems as follows:</div>
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1. The 'Nature' framing is really misleading, ignore Keeling at your peril.</div>
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2. Ken Caldeira is very opposed to AMEG (they must know this)...</div>
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3. Their dissonance is alarming - climate change is profoundly serious and man-made BUT don't even think about potentially unpalatable solutions?</div>
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That said, I don't disagree with their alarm on a rush towards deployment! Interestingly, in a meeting with Peter Wadhams this week all he was calling for was urgent upscaling of the research effort. I wholly agree... </div>
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<a href="http://ecowatch.com/2013/the-war-on-nature-geoengineering-and-the-climate-crisis/">http://ecowatch.com/2013/the-war-on-nature-geoengineering-and-the-climate-crisis/</a></div>
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By Rachel Smolker and Almuth Ernsting</div>
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Will declaring a “climate emergency” help to finally prompt radical action to address <a href="http://ecowatch.com/p/air/climate-change-air/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">climate change</a>? A growing number of campaigners as well as scientists think so and hope that a major wake up call about unfolding climate disasters will spur governments and people into action.</div>
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Whether a lack of scary-enough facts about climate change has been holding back real action is questionable. After all, it requires a <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2013/mainstream-media-ignores-connection-between-climate-change-and-severe-weather-again/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">fair amount of psychological denial</a> to not be alarmed by the escalating heat waves, <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2013/fracking-rules-leave-drought-ridden-states-dry/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">droughts</a>, floods and destructive <a href="http://ecowatch.com/p/water/hurricane-sandy/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">megastorms</a>.</div>
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Studies about psychological responses to climate change suggest that messages built on fear can cause people to feel disempowered and less likely to take action at all. Still, constantly playing down the scale of the unfolding destruction of climate and other planetary life support systems so as not to be “alarmist” seems somewhat disempowering to me. Personally, we much prefer to hear <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2012/going-down-this-path-is-game-over-for-the-climate/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">climate scientist James Hansen</a> speak of a “planetary emergency” (in view of last year’s <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2013/major-arctic-ice-loss/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">record low Arctic sea ice cover</a>) than to read excessively cautious comments about uncertainties and the <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2013/97-percent-scientists-agree-climate-change-man-made/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">need for more research</a> before concluding what seems obvious, for example that Arctic sea ice is in rapid meltdown and that extreme weather events are already far worse and more frequent than scientists had predicted.</div>
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<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=114398326" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Photo courtesy of Shutterstock</a></div>
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Yet, while the language of “climate emergency” may or may not spur more people to action, the crucial question is exactly what type of action is being advocated. James Hansen’s conclusion: “If we burn all the fossil fuels, we create certain disaster” should be beyond dispute. Action on climate change will be futile unless <a href="http://ecowatch.com/p/energy/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">fossil fuels</a> are left underground.</div>
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Unlike James Hansen, some academics and campaigners are calling for a very different type of “radical action” in response to the climate emergency. Amongst them is the small but vociferous <a href="http://www.ameg.me/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Arctic Methane Emergency Group</a> (AMEG). AMEG does not mince words about the seriousness of the crisis:</div>
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Abrupt climate change is upon us. Farmers are in despair. Food prices will go through the roof. The government’s climate change policy is in tatters. The government should have acted years ago. Now it may be too late.</div>
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The abrupt climate change scenario put forward by AMEG is, briefly, as follows:</div>
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The rate of warming is greatest in the Arctic and the rate at which Arctic sea ice has been melting is accelerating. The loss of sea ice triggers different impacts which in turn make Arctic meltdown, global warming and extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere even worse. One of those effects is the release of methane trapped in permafrost, Arctic peat and under the Arctic Ocean. This could release so much methane at once that it would greatly increase the rate of global warming and lead to “unstoppable runaway warming.”</div>
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The first part of this analysis should be beyond dispute. However, the prediction of an imminent abrupt and catastrophic methane release from the Arctic is much less widely accepted amongst climate scientists, many of whom predict a slower release, over thousands of years—one which will worsen climate change in the long run but (importantly) not surpass the impacts of our own carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. </div>
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One of the scientists challenging AMEG’s predictions is methane expert, Dr. David Archer who stresses:</div>
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The worst case scenario is “what CO2 will do, under business-as-usual, not in a wild blow-the-doors-off unpleasant surprise, but just in the absence of any pleasant surprises (like emission controls).”</div>
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Is he right? We have no idea how much of the methane in the Arctic will end up the atmosphere by when. Some recent climate change impacts and findings have turned out to be much worse than what scientists had previously predicted. For example, a recent <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">New Scientist</em> article observed:</div>
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We knew global warming was going to make the weather more extreme. But it’s becoming even more extreme than anyone predicted.</div>
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But the argument regarding AMEG’s claims is not just a speculative argument about what might happen in future. It is also—and primarily—an argument about how we think about climate change and what we want to do about it. In this respect, we unequivocally agree with Archer’s view: Business-as-usual will guarantee the worst possible climate disaster. Arguing about just how bad that worst-case scenario might be seems futile when we should be doing whatever we can to stop greenhouse gas emissions, including fossil fuel burning and ecosystem destruction. This, however, is very different from how AMEG views the climate disaster.</div>
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What AMEG most fears is not what humans are doing—it’s the (<a href="http://ecowatch.com/2013/fugitive-methane-emissions-climate-implications-oshale-gas-exports/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">methane</a>) monsters lurking in nature. Preserving most life on Earth, in their view, thus requires nature to be better controlled and its monsters to be tamed. As AMEG’s Strategic Plan puts it, the “common enemy” that’s to be fought, the underlying cause of abrupt climate change isn’t us, it isn’t the fossil fuel economy—it’s the “vicious cycle of Arctic Warming and sea ice retreat.”</div>
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<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&search_source=search_form&search_tracking_id=GmtqjHgZLZg4BCJ-aGnVzQ&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&searchterm=chemtrails&search_group=&orient=&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&commercial_ok=&color=&show_color_wheel=1#id=117812974&src=G99ojC83DojdDF8cGjEUKg-1-0" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Photo courtesy of Shutterstock</a></div>
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They demand “something akin to a war room” and the war they want governments to fight is a war against nature—and specifically a war against the way in which nature responds when humans drastically alter the planet’s atmosphere by increasing its greenhouse gases. The tools for fighting this war that they suggest we use are a range of geoengineering strategies: Large amounts of sulphur aerosols which they want pumped into the lower stratosphere starting as soon as March/April 2014, the development of new reflective particles to be pumped into the stratosphere in future, marine cloud brightening, chemicals to destroy cirrus clouds, marine geoengineering, weather modification and more. </div>
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Changing our own society and economy is ancillary to this quest. Here are the changes which AMEG’s demands in relation to our energy and transport sectors: Postpone <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2013/arctic-drilling-climate-change/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">drilling in the Arctic</a>, reintroduce a ban on polar flights, relax requirements to clean up “bunker fuels” burnt in ships (because sulphur aerosols have a short-term cooling effect), scrub black carbon but not sulphur dioxide from coal power stations—and that’s it. Burning more <a href="http://ecowatch.com/p/energy/coal-mining-pollution/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">coal</a> and diesel is fine, in their view, as long as we emit lots of sulphur dioxide with it. Never mind the illnesses and acid rain caused by sulphur dioxide. Indeed, AMEG members are even, bizarrely, promoting Arctic methane hydrate mining for energy. One of the most widely cited AMEG members, British oceanographer Peter Wadhams, has been criticized by <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Greenpeace</a> after praising Shell’s credentials for “safely” drilling in the Arctic in front of a Parliamentary Committee.</div>
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Not all AMEG members appear this unconcerned about ongoing fossil fuel emissions and some clearly do want to see real emissions reductions—in addition to geoengineering. AMEG is a very mixed group: Some supporters clearly have no financial interests in geoengineering and have joined AMEG purely out of the conviction that AMEG has the most credible answer to climate change. Some are academics who have gained a much greater public profile thanks to AMEG’s campaign—such as Peter Wadhams. And some have major financial interests in geoengineering—including Ken Caldeira. Caldeira, together with David Keith (not listed on AMEG’s website) has received more than $4.6 million from Bill Gates’ personal funds, around half of it for personal research on geoengineering, the other half to fund “research” by other geoengineering advocates. He is also listed as an inventor on a patent for a geoengineering device called StratoShield, held by Intellectual Ventures, a company linked to Gates.</div>
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All of them, however, are united in their faith that geoengineering can work and that humans can avert an even greater climate disaster by manipulating the planet’s atmosphere and biosphere. They do not appear concerned about what unilateral action taken by a government to deliberately manipulate planetary systems might mean for democracy and the rights of most of the world’s population. This is perhaps because they are convinced that geoengineering is the only way of keeping the planet habitable (at least for most humans). But this conviction is not derived from scientific knowledge—it is based on unwavering faith in human ability to master and control nature through engineering and technology.</div>
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The possibility that their proposals could possibly backfire and end up making climate change even worse, even faster has, it seems, not occurred to AMEG. Yet what the science confirms is that the full impacts of geoengineering on planetary and climate systems are by their nature unpredictable and that they might well render the climate yet more unstable. In a recent joint briefing by <a href="http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Biofuelwatch</a> and <a href="http://www.econexus.info/" style="color: rgb(245, 130, 33) !important; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">EcoNexus</a>, we summarized some of the highest risks of the types of geoengineering promoted by AMEG: Destruction of the ozone layer, acid rain, possible virtually instant and massive disruption of rainfall patterns, especially in the tropics and subtropics (which could mean a failure of the African and Asian monsoon), vegetation die-back which would release yet more carbon—and those are just some of the known risks.</div>
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If we want to have any hope of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, we clearly need radical action—but that radical action must be aimed at stopping the burning fossil fuels and reversing the destruction of ecosystems (including soils). The very last thing we and the planet need is yet another “war room” and a new battle-front in the war against nature.</div>
matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-80601032670956522172013-05-17T06:50:00.000-07:002013-05-17T14:18:35.857-07:00An attempt at balance...OK - so, hopefully a calmer reflection on ETC's blog (as promised 'tomorrow' (hah) in the last piece)...<br />
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So, ignoring the nonsense (see last post if interested) there are some interesting ideas here. <br />
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Firstly, I'm not sure I completely buy the 'plowshares into swords' argument. Weren't the ambitions of Lyndon Johnson somewhat noble and altruistic? I'm sure we can all agree what followed was abhorrent but there are two separate issues here. By this logic, you could also argue ENMOD was a function of the first effort, which is a good thing, right? I worry that the inevitability of bad usage is too readily accepted. Or it could be that <b>any </b>intervention is perceived as bad, even with good intentions (I suppose the argument here is economic - how much more aid could have been given without attempts at weather modification?). I still think this is harder to argue for - as a member of Friends of the Earth once said, 'doing nothing is an ethical position'. To protect 'naturalness' to that extent (i.e. not intervening when you could) is perverse, and on a par with refusing your child a blood transfusion on religious grounds. It's simply disgusting. <b>BUT</b>, and it is a big but indeed, why should we trust people in power to do the right thing with climate engineering when they are failing so spectacularly on climate change? (a point raised by Peter Irving at a meeting in 2010). This is harder to knock down - you can point at the conspiracy theorists who claim geoengineering is already happening on a massive scale but, ignoring those loonies (as ETC now do I think) this question still alarms me. Peter, and others, are right - (1) governments regularly do appalling things in our name and (2) even well meaning efforts at SRM could worsen the situation, at least for some. It's also clear to most that nuclear power [paragraph 8] must play a role (at least in the short term) in reducing carbon dioxide emissions - swords into plowshares again ?<br />
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Secondly, of course, Jim is right. <b>Plan A all the way</b>. But, and it's a big but again, would it really work? Can you really plant your way out of food poverty in Northern Africa? I seriously doubt it, not with the amount of water stress and the increase in populations predicted over the next fifty years. If it were that easy, why hasn't it been done? Don't wheel out the old 'global powers' conspiracy theory nonsense again, please. Billions of dollars of aid have been pumped into the most needing parts of the world with very limited effect. If there was a solution as simple as ETC propose why wouldn't people just have done it? Answer, it's not that simple and it's an idealistic and unrealistic solution. A victory for idealism for pragmatism. By the way, I am all for idealism - if carbon dioxide levels start coming down, temperatures stabilise and global poverty is reduced/eliminated, those proposing climate engineering schemes look immensely stupid. Let me know when that happens....<br />
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Thirdly, thanks for the credit... <span style="color: black; display: inline ! important; float: none; font-family: Constantia,'Lucida Bright',LucidaBright,'DejaVu Serif','Bitstream Vera Serif','Liberation Serif',Georgia; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18.4219px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Morton and the geoengineers might spare a little artificial intelligence to figure out what to do if a real or second “inevitable” volcanic eruption overlaps the manufactured kind. How would a triple-whammy of sulphates (a north injection, a south injection and then an unexpected volcanic addition) shift the climate. Would you need to double the artificial injection? How can you then scale back afterwards?'. </span> That's pretty much exactly what I've been working on. As a ball park estimate the odds of another Pinatubo-scale eruption over the next 50 years are (roughly) 1 in 3 (not quite inevitable). Those aren't good odds. As I've said in *many* meetings, including those attended by ETC, volcanoes may teach us much about climate engineering but may well turn out to be the greatest single uncertainty when considering such schemes. <br />
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Lastly, the normalisation of geoengineering and public acceptance is not something 'we' should covet. Make no mistake, if SRM is undertaken it will be the clearest indictation yet of our failure as a species. That should not be 'normal'...<br />
<br />matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-42808158888296737092013-04-06T03:47:00.000-07:002013-04-06T03:47:11.818-07:00An inconvenient truth<span style="font-family: inherit;">Jim Thomas from ETC group has written a blog post on the Haywood paper: </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; text-decoration: underline;">http://www.etcgroup.org/</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; text-decoration: underline;">content/normalizing-</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; text-decoration: underline;">geoengineering-foreign-aid</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">In the interests of fairness I should say there are some fascinating points in there. Maybe I'll come back tomorrow and try to go through the positives of this article - for now I'm a little irritated to do so. It's the first paragraph that really got my blood pressure up:</span><br />
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'<strong style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;">Climate Drift:</strong><span style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;"> </span><span style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;">Geoengineers have a problem. Computer modeling suggests that blocking solar radiation in the temperate zone (to preserve Arctic ice or to forestall massive methane releases) could cool the Northern hemisphere but its impact could also drift South, creating severe climatic disruptions by dampening down Asia’s monsoon while drying out Africa’s Sahel. Not a popular proposition.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;">Now, geoengineers may hope they have a solution. A new study in</span><span style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;"> </span><em style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;">Nature</em><span style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;"> </span><em style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;">Climate Change<a href="http://www.etcgroup.org/content/normalizing-geoengineering-foreign-aid#_edn1" id="_ednref" name="_ednref" style="color: #858000; text-decoration: none;" title="">[i]</a></em><span style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;"> </span><span style="font-family: Constantia, 'Lucida Bright', LucidaBright, 'DejaVu Serif', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', 'Liberation Serif', Georgia; line-height: 18.421875px;">by the UK Government’s Meteorological Office suggests that some form of solar radiation management could mitigate the conventional vicissitudes of nature. According to the report, volcanic eruptions north of the equator in the 20th century either contributed to – or caused – droughts along the African equator and further South. The Met Office guys reason that if the North (home to most volcanoes) were to have another major (and, ultimately inevitable) eruption, drought might be prevented by unleashing counter (artificial) volcanoes below the equator. The sulfuric blasts could even increase precipitation in sub-Saharan Africa, increase biomass growth and benefit regional food security.'</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Wow! So, who are these heroes? Those clever chaps with their computer models who have pointed out the problems with asymmetric deployment of sulfates? Hang on, oh no! You're not going to believe this, it's only the <b>same people who wrote the Nature Climate Change</b> paper, and, I know you're going to laugh, <b>it's the same paper! </b>Well, that is awkward. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">I tell you what, let's ignore that part, make the authors out to be 'geoengineers' and the cherry pick the bits we don't like. What we absolutely shouldn't do is given the authors any sort of credit for pointing out (yet more) problems with a dash towards deployment in the Northern Hemisphere.</span></div>
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matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-395868162198534848.post-48797175212842235602013-03-31T11:19:00.001-07:002013-03-31T11:22:19.919-07:00New article from Science reporter in the Guardian on Jim Haywood's recent paper...<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">From Ian Sample at the Guardian....</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Controversial <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/geoengineering" title="More from guardian.co.uk on Geoengineering">geoengineering</a> projects
that may be used to cool the planet must be approved by world governments to
reduce the danger of catastrophic accidents, British scientists said.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Met Office researchers have called for global oversight of the radical
schemes after studies showed they could have huge and unintended impacts on
some of the world's most vulnerable people.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The dangers arose in projects that cooled the planet unevenly. In some
cases these caused devastating droughts across Africa; in others they increased
rainfall in the region but left huge areas of Brazil parched.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">"The massive complexities associated with geoengineering, and the
potential for winners and losers, means that some form of global governance is
essential," said <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/people/jim-haywood" title="">Jim Haywood</a> at the Met Office's Hadley
Centre in Exeter. </span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">The warning builds on work by scientists and engineers to agree a regulatory
framework that would ban full-scale geoengineering projects, at least
temporarily, but allow smaller research projects to go ahead.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Geoengineering comes in many flavours, but among the more plausible are
"solar radiation management" (SRM) schemes that would spray huge
amounts of sun-reflecting particles high into the atmosphere to simulate the
cooling effects of volcanic eruptions.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Volcanoes can blast millions of tonnes of sulphate particles into the
stratosphere, where they stay aloft for years and cool the planet by reflecting
some of the sun's energy back out to space.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2009/geoengineering-climate/" title="">In 2009, a Royal Society report</a> warned
that geoengineering was not an alternative to cutting greenhouse gas emissions,
but conceded the technology might be needed in the event of a climate
emergency. </span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">Writing in the journal Nature </span><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/scienceofclimatechange" style="font-size: 10.5pt;" title="More from guardian.co.uk on Climate change">Climate
Change</a><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">, Haywood and others show that moves to cool the climate by
spraying sulphate particles into the atmosphere could go spectacularly wrong.
They began by looking at the unexpected impacts of volcanic eruptions.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">In 1912 and 1982, eruptions first at Katmai in Alaska and then at El
Chichón in Mexico blasted millions of tonnes of sulphate into northern skies.
These eruptions preceded major droughts in the Sahel region of Africa. When the
scientists recreated the eruptions in climate models, rainfall across the Sahel
all but stopped as moisture-carrying air currents were pushed south.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Having established a link between volcanic eruptions in the northern
hemisphere and droughts in Africa, the scientists returned to their climate
models to simulate SRM projects. </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The scientists took a typical project that would inject 5m tonnes of
sulphate into the stratosphere every year from 2020 to 2070. That amount of
sulphate injected into the northern hemisphere caused severe droughts in Niger,
Mali, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Chad and Sudan, and an almost total loss of
vegetation.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The same project had radically different consequences if run from the
southern hemisphere. Rather than drying the Sahel, cooling the southern
hemisphere brought rains to the Sahel and re-greened the region. But Africa's
benefit came at the cost of slashing rainfall in north-eastern Brazil. </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The unintended consequences of SRM projects would probably be felt much
farther afield. "We have only scratched the surface in looking at the
Sahel. If hurricane frequencies changed, that could have an impact on the
US," said Haywood.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><a href="http://www.bris.ac.uk/earthsciences/people/matthew-m-watson/index.html" title="">Matthew Watson</a>, who leads the <a href="http://www.bris.ac.uk/news/2011/7895.html" title="">Spice project</a> at Bristol University, said
the study revealed the "dramatic consequences" of uninformed
geoengineering. </span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">"This paper tells us there are consequences for our actions
whatever we do. There is no get-out-of-jail-free card," he told the
Guardian. </span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">"Whatever we do is a compromise, and that compromise means there
will be winners and losers. That opens massive ethical questions: who gets to
decide how we even determine what is a good outcome for different people?</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">"How do you get a consensus with seven billion-plus stakeholders?
If there was a decision to do geoengineering tomorrow, it would be done by
white western men, and that isn't good," Watson said.</span><br />
<br />matt watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14583012320357403299noreply@blogger.com0